How to Slice Through the ‘Favourite-Backing’ Media Hype, and Hone In On Value Bets Every Single Time, with the Cold, Calculated Eye of a Black Belt Brain Surgeon…
In the last couple of years, I discovered the power of race trends and since then have been a much more successful bettor.
Here, I will show you how I do it, and how you can join me.
Please forgive the brazened headline, but I wanted to make sure you read this, as I think it could make a huge positive difference to your betting.
I want to tell you about an under-used method of betting, where real value winners are commonplace and, best of all, I’ll tell you how I will do all of the work for you…
First, let me introduce myself. My name is Tony McCormick. Just over six years ago, I was an average punter, trying to find winners every day, either in poor low grade races in the betting shop or at my local track.
I had good days and bad days, like every other punter I guess, but if I’m honest, the bad ones outweighed the good ones by about three to one. My problem was I didn’t really have an angle. I’d look at each race on its merits and try to divine the form, like some modern-day rune reader.
Don’t get me wrong, I really enjoyed my betting days. But I was frustrated that overall I was a loser, and I had to admit to my mates (and my missus!) that this was the case.
My Eyes Were Opened…
Then one day… I remember it clearly, it was Monday, 12th March 2007, the eve of the Cheltenham National Hunt Festival… my punting approach changed permanently.
A mate of mine, Tom, who I used to go racing with, was flicking through his latest manual. (Tom used to buy one or two of these things a month. I’d make a joke about it, but he was always much luckier than me. At least, I thought it was luck…)
Anyway, as I said, he was leafing through this manual and I asked him what it was. He looked up, paused for a second, and then handed it over to me. It was a copy of a betting guide for the Cheltenham Festival, and in those pages was a heady mixture of analysis, trainer comments and, most interestingly to me, a run-down of the big race trends for the last ten years.
I’d briefly come across these big race trends on the odd occasion, but had never really taken much notice of them… until that Monday and that year’s Festival.
Well, to cut a long story short, I backed several winners that I’d not have previously given a second thought to. And at nice prices. In fact, Joe’s Edge – admittedly the jewel in the crown – came in at 50/1! I made a killing, and so did Tom.
Months later, I followed Tom’s trends for the Royal Ascot meeting, and they did pretty well too. Not as brilliantly as that first great Cheltenham, of course, but more than paid their way, and they gave me a confidence in my betting that wasn’t there before.
Later that summer, I started compiling my own trends: trends I was happy with; trends I thought were more important than those printed in other publications; trends that pointed to horses with the criteria of past winners, and trends that pointed to the winner of this year’s races.
I still wasn’t happy…
Over the next two years, up until the start of 2010, I’d been ‘twiddling a few knobs’ to refine things, but I still wasn’t entirely happy with the trends… even though the winners kept coming.
It wasn’t until the turn of the year, when a guy called Matt Bisogno and I started exchanging emails and phone calls, that the trends evolved into something that I’m now confident are ‘the real deal’.
[In case you don’t know, Matt has been writing about racing and producing trends-based products since 2006. He’s a straight guy with a strong following online – just ‘Google’ him!]
With Matt’s help, advice and expertise, I honed the trends in to a tight, workable, professional looking, and easy to understand product.
Eight year trends were introduced, as well as primary and secondary trends.
Let me quickly explain. During my research I’d often find that when all the trends were applied, I’d be left with a tenuous selection because of a single trend that I wasn’t sure was as meaningful as others for that race (an example might be a breeding trend, for instance).
So I broke the trends down into two sets, primary and secondary, and produced a shortlist after the primary analysis.
I then process the shortlisted horses through the Dosage Index – A tool increasing in value as time goes by.
Although generally there would be more than one horse on the shortlist, those lists found the winner with gratifying regularity.
Allied to this, the brilliant R.A.G system is a really handy ‘traffic light’ system, which helps us see at a glance the historical strength of a race in trends terms.
That’s all very interesting Tony, but what about the results?!
A perfectly fair question, so let’s take a look at the results for the
LAST THREE CHELTENHAM FESTIVALS
[All of these races were published to www.horse-racing.ie or available by subscription…
2013 Cheltenham Festival
Supreme Novices – Champagne Fever won last year’s ‘Bumper’, Ruby deciding to ride a horse he is yet to win on (2 defeats) suggest the Stowaway gelding is coming to hand – as he did this time last year.
The Arkle – Simonsig
Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly has to overcome the age trend, but, the former champion is still the one to beat.
The Neptune -
The New One has valuable Cheltenham experience behind him having won here on two occasions and finishing placed from four runs. The worry is parting with your money with a cloud hanging over the Twiston-Davies stable, though their runners ran well here yesterday.
Rule The World continues to improve already having Minsk and Supreme Novices winner Champagne Fever behind him last time out, needs to improve to beat the favourite, but that is on the cards.
Queen Mother Champion Chase - Sprinter Sacre looks in a class of his own, so it’s who can finish second to him.
The Bumper – The Mullins’ pair Briar Hill and Sizing Tennesee score particularly well on the trends, despite running in small fields which may be a negative.
The Ryanair – Cue Card is very strong on the trends and showed his well being last time out at Ascot in February. The Kings Theatre gelding has finished in the first four at the last three festival and is 33% around here. If Tizzard gets him into some kind of rhythm, he will take all the beating.
Triumph Hurdle – Our Conors’ win last time out at Leopardstown was a stunning performance, travels well in his races and worthy favourite, despite only one winning favourite in the last eight runnings.
Albert Bartlett - Unbeaten in his last four start At Fishers Cross outstayed Neptune winner up the hill here in January, that followed a win over todays distance, again, here in December – The one to beat.
Gold Cup - Bobs Worth
2012 The Trends highlighted
9 winners from the 11 Grade 1 races covered at the Cheltenham Festival
Cinders And Ashes 10/1, Sprinter Sacre 8/15, Simonsig 2/1, Bob’s Worth 9/2, Finian’s Rainbow 4/1, Champagne Fever 16/1, Big Bucks 5/6, Brindisi Breeze 7/1 and Synchronised 8/1
Supreme Novices’ – Cinders And Ashes only blip on the trends
horizon is that his last run will be over 37 days ago come Tuesday’s race, but
for sheer racing trends the Donald McCain inmate scores well.
The Arkle - Sprinter Sacre
Neptune Investments – Simonsig is the best of the British contingent
RSA Chase – Bobs Worth is clear on the trends here
Queen Mother Champion Chase – Finians Rainbow
The Bumper – Preference here is for Moscow Mannon, who is
closely followed by Champagne Fever
World Hurdle – Big Bucks
Albert Bartlett – Brindisi Breeze will make it interesting as he
will try to make all.
Gold Cup – Synchronised has improved 12lb this year and has place claims following his win in the Lexus.
Lion Na Bearnai was shortlisted in the Irish Grand National – won at 40/1
Chrysanthemum wins the Park Express for IBRT subscribers at 11/1 Profit gained at Aintree included wins for Grumeti, Edgardo Sol, Finians Rainbow, Darlan and Oscar Whisky – The last 19 races covered, 15 winners highlighted, 1 placed advice at 16/1.
”Captain Chris found the winners enclosure last time out and cannot be dismissed at 10/1.”
Champion Hurdle – FORECAST
National Hunt Chase – 20/1 THIRD Be There In Five shortlisted on the trends rewards each way backers at 20/1 to finish a battling 3rd.
Neptune Investments – The Davy Russell ridden FLIGHT LIEUTENANT and at 7/1 duly obliged for Mid- Price backers.
R.S.A. Chase - 16/1 WINNER
Another Irish winner as BOSTONS ANGEL takes the RSA at 16/1
Queen Mother – 10/1 WINNER
Followers of Irish Big Race Trends wouldn’t have been surprised to see SIZING EUROPE in the mix for the big race on Wednesday and he repaid Mid Price selection followers at 10/1. IBRT’s Tony McCormick said ‘’What was possibly one of the hardest races at the festival was pretty straight forward on the trends. I love a hyped race, this was no exception. Nobody, because of the The Morning Line and the daily paper pull-out hype, looked past Master Minded and Big Zeb, for me SIZING EUROPE was right in the mix and so it proved”.
Coral Cup – 16/1 WINNER
Wonderful Wednesday continued with ease as CARLITO BRIGANTE cruised to victory under Davy Russell at 16/1. The Coral Cup is normally a minefield for punters, IBRT got it to a shortlist of 4, rewarding higher priced followers.
Fred Winter – 33/1 PLACE
For the trends KUMBESHWAR was beaten a neck at 33/1.
World Hurdle – TRI-CAST
A tri cast was shortlisted on the trends as BIG BUCKS, GRAND CRUS And MOURAD came home first second and third paying 15:64.
More disappointment came in the Byrne Group Plate and The Fulke Walwyn with trend busters in both races.
The Triumph Hurdle
the trends said All shortlisted horses are pretty close together here, interestingly Zarkandar only fail’s on the number of runs.
Zarkander wins the Triumph Hurdle at 13/2 with Grandouet (also shortlisted) 3rd at 13/2
The Albert Bartlett saw Trends selection and big gamble Bobs Worth smash the bookies at 15/8 (opened at 5/2) and Court In Motion also shortlisted came 3rd at 9/1.
And so to the Gold Cup
The Trends Shortlisted What A Friend, Kauto Star and Long Run
May & June Highlights 2011
Ballybacka Lady 40/1, Princeton Plains 12/1, Hitchens 4/1, Roderic O’Connor 7/2, Alexander Pope 3/1, Misty For Me 9/1 Bewitched 5/1,
Antara 11/8, 2nd First City 16/1 (£21.30fc)
Fanunalter 16/1, 2nd St Moritz 9/2 (£128.60)
The Epsom Derby – Pour Moi 4/1
Canford Cliffs 11/8, Power 4/1, Field Of Miracles – ew 28/1, Fame And Glory 5/2, Nathanial 11/8, Await The Dawn 4/6
Red Cadeaux 7/2
Treasure Beach 7/2, Seville 2nd@5/1(7/1 advised) (£26.30fc)