Midweek we hit everything with Bournemouth. We got the Bournemouth win, Bournemouth win and BTTS at 13/5and I mentioned 3 players to include in your score casts. Two of them netted. It doesn’t get much better than that.
Anyway enough of that what are we doing this week? For the premiership bet I like the look of a big one. Cardiff to win and BTTS at 5/1. Before you scratch your head please note that this has happened in 3 of the last 4 games at The Cardiff City stadium. All these games have been against similar teams on paper to Southampton in Brighton, Fulham and Wolves. Taking into account BTTS has come in on 5 of the last 7 games at Cardiff it stands us in good stead. 5/1 looks a really good bit of value. BTTS is 10/11 so if you want to play it safer stick that in a multiple.
Down the league we’re looking at more favourable stats. Oldham have been BTTS 7 of the last 9, Tranmere 7 of the last 10 and Harrogate 5 of the last 7. If we stick all their games in as BTTS on Saturday afternoon we are getting 5/1 and I’m
Happy with that.
Advice: all BTTS
Harrogate v Aldershot
Crewe v Oldham
Tranmere v Cambridge
For those wanting a straight treble on results I think Sheffield Wed, Norwich and Stoke looks a good trio. That’s 9/2 which is also a good bit of value. Especially since Stoke and Norwich only have 1 defeat between them in 24 games combined. They are both playing lowly opposition and as long as Wednesday do us a favour our luck might be in.
Stoke to beat Ipswich
Norwich to beat Bolton
Sheff Wed to beat Rotherham
Finally for a bit of a long shot, I fancy Shrewsbury go to Burton and win. The blues are not doing as well as I’d have hoped this season but they have turned a corner and have only lost 1 in 9 games. That for me looks good and For the shrews to win is 4/1.
I’m going to kick of the 2018/19 season preview by expressing my disgust at the scandalous behaviour of the bookies in the markets for the Football League. I do not know if its because they know nothing about lower league football or if its something else. To have a bet for a top 6 finish in league 1 or 2 is virtually pointless. It is also a bare faced tactic to win money for the men we hate. So what am I talking about? 19 out of 24 teams in league 1 and 2 are 6/1 or below. Its basically priced up to say that over half of the teams in each division are equally matched. This of course if garbage. Luckily I have managed to find some value in the top 6 market and in the win market (e/w). Lets get into it.Premier League.As we should know by now if you are following the blog my expertise is the EFL. The Premier League will be won byMan City and the top scorer will be Harry Kane or Mo Salah. I know which one Id be backing for value purposes and that is Mo Salah. He is 6/1 compared to Harry Kane at 2/1. He finished ahead of Kane last season and its going to be close. But considering you are winning £40 more for every £10 spent if Salah wins it, the Egyptian is the best bet.Championship.This seasons hype job are Nottingham Forest. They wont win the Championship and 11/1 is no value. I also think at 11/8 to finish in the top 6 they are worth taking on in the lay market. For those who don’t understand that, it means in a week or two it will be evens for Forest to finish outside the top 6. They finished 22 points outside the play offs last season and they need massive improvement. For me they do not have it. I’ve never been a fan of Aston Villa and what I am about to write depends on who leads them into the season. If Steve Bruce is in charge keep stakes small. Its no secret I hate his tactics. If they get someone else in I think they are the value bet this season. They are about to be taken over by someone from the richest family in Egypt and he says hes investing. My advice to him is to bin Bruce so we can win some money. The angle i am coming at is Villa to finish in the top 6. Its 5/2 and that is a huge price. The other long shot punt ill be having is the League 1 champions Wigan Athletic E/W. They are a huge 40/1 to win the division and I think a few quid on a team who beat last years Premier League champions in the FA cup is worth anyone’s money.League 1.As I’ve explained the league 1 and 2 top 6 race is out of the question so we need to look at value bets to win the league. In league 1 for me the value has to be Shrewsbury Town. They were desperately unlucky last season after being in the top 2 for so long. They are a huge 33/1 and they are worth ew money. Sunderland are nailed on apparently. I do not agree and are worth a small lay at 3/1. If Jack Marriott stays at Peterborough Utd hes worth a small punt in the top scorer market. This is one to keep an eye on as I know he might not be at the Posh come the start of the season.League 2.One team who have been relegated from League 1 who score lots of goals are Oldham Athletic. They are 22/1 to win the division so Ill have that e/w and they are 5/2 for the top 6. They are 12/1 to be the leagues top scorers and that is also worth a little nibble. Favourites for the league are MK Dons who are much shorter at 6/1. Oldham beat them at home last season and drew away 4-4 after being 4-1 up. This highlights how the odds are lob sided and Id much rather have the 22/1 about Oldham than the 6’s about the Dons. Each way shouts are Tranmere Rovers at 25/1 whose form was erratic last season and Macclesfield Town who were the National League champions at 100/1 (you read that right). Teams who come up usually go well and are worth small stakes. The league 2 odds also show again how clueless the bookies are about lower league football. Tranmere are 25/1 and they are a team who scraped promiotion, yet the winners Macclesfield Town are 100/1. At times it is laugh out loud funny.Good luck.Follow me on Twitter @hullcityranger
A local award winning FA coach, Chris Kirkham’s grassroots club recently won the FA charter standard club of the year and kindly asks any profits made from his selections, a kind donation is put back into kids football, at his club.
World Cup Preview 2018
Following a hugely successful Euro 2016 blog which featured on the Colin Murray ‘Talksport’ show, I would like to welcome all our readers to the WC2018 preview.
The season on the whole went really well for us and the addition of the Marcos Garcia in the lower leagues sending his knowledge to the Premier league double , which became the forefront of the main feature in the weekly column.
Nobody ever wants to read about , handicaps on corner bets and however successful those may be , in this new age of betting , punters want to go with facts , form and trends that ultimately partners us nicely with Tony’s work with the horses.
I’ve bought every World Cup guide I can physically lay my hands on , and fortunately for me with two lads in the day job of home school tutoring that have an interest in the World Cup , I was able to find a few extra things to look at.
From the guides , I find the following findings , that I feel that it will become a World Cup that ends many journeys for some players and coaches on the international scene. From Joachim Low to Lionel Messi to possibly the modern day referee as ‘ VAR ‘ makes a real outing and is bound to cause havoc !!
I’m really looking forward to the tournament and often think when we are in mid season of the Champions League that perhaps its bigger than the WC. It’s also the last in the summer until 2024 as the next one takes place in NOVEMBER !!
This is the real deal, the biggest event on the football calendar , that every four years brings fans from all over the world to one country to celebrate their football team , never mind how they play.
The Nigerians , the Columbians , the Senagilse and the Egyptians will invade Russia and stay in hotels and drink in bars and really open the eyes of the naive , racist westerners , who will not really know what’s coming. Putin , we all hope celebrates the competition , though the hosts awful form , of not winning a competitive game since 2012 is a little concerning , once they go out!!
The hosts have only failed once to qualify in 2010 as the South Africans grabbed the vuvuzela’s and blew them in other games instead.
I have to begin in a preview of who I think will win the competition . I always look ahead to the Monday after the competition of any big sporting event , Wimbledon, Snooker , Darts and the big footy tournaments , even the Grand National. What will the story be ? Will it be obvious , or a story such as the cinderella tale of Leicester City?
I think it has a sneak of having that , and every guide , or professional pundit ( those in the pub or on Twitter ) say Germany , Brazil , Spain or France . Well done Einstein as the four market leaders do attract the attention. Only 7 teams have contested the final since 1970 so they have a point , make they 8 if we add England.
The incredible ‘Pep’ stat of winning the domestic league in Spain in 2010 and the national team winning the WC then in 2014 again happened in Germany , can his success at Man City really roll over into the summer !!
I do think backing Brazil and Germany , who have shared the most wins between them , and with a William Hill a £20 bet on them gives you a £5 free bet every time they win , so i feel you will get your £20 back in the bets and have the two favourites at reasonable prices to the final. I think that bet is a no brainer and they both surely win 4 games minimum.
Only two finals since 78 have not featured those two giants of the game.
Then Uruguay are my new Portugal ( tipped in Euro 2016 to go well ) and feel they will indeed go well. They have an excellent squad and its one of those that is not highlighted by those left out but the strength already in the squad.
Have you seen who France have left out ? , Yes mate , at the end of the day the coach picked the 23 players he sees fit not what you think from your bedroom playing FIFA !!
As Alf Ramsey once said “ I don’t pick the best players , i pick the right players ”
Uruguay are 33-1 and worth a small each way.
20 Point win Brazil to win the WC at 9-2 with William Hill taking the £5 free bet offer.
20 Point win Germany to win the 4-1 WC with William Hill taking the £5 free bet offer.
Also Denmark at 100-1 ranked 12th in the seedings could be this years Holland and have a good run.
The Golden Boot is always interesting and looking back to 1998 , the odds suggest players around the 25-1 shot are best looked at. James Rodriguez at 150-1 in 2014 showed up the favourites , in a year in which England had Rickie Lambert in their squad!!
Messi and Ronaldo have hit 8 goals in a combined 28 goals between them in World Cups.
I’ve looked at many tipsters advice and feel the selections are of the usual criteria , takes penalties , smashed a load in qualification and in the previous season. Though those stats don’t have no relevance on this competition , with some of the golden boots in their respective leagues , not turning up to the biggest footballing show on earth.
I backed Suarez , some time ago , simply as he’s a goalscorer who is in a team i have already flagged up. he’s still available at 25-1.
William Hill are running the same offer and will add £5 free bets everytime your player scores.
The difference between Uruguay with and without Suarez is massive as they discovered after his bite in 2014 and he missed defeats in qualification.
Germany have scored the most in the last three finals , 48 in total.
Muller has 5 in each of the last two finals and is chasing Miroslav Klose record of 16.
25-1 in the each way market with six places with Paddy Power ( beware is 1/5th odds )
33-1 with Bet 365 for the first four ( 1/4 the odds )
Other bets , James Rodriguez is 50-1 and Marcus Rashford at 100-1 ( sentimental )
In 2014 i had RVP who came 3rd and 2010 Forlan both picked with a little ‘ Man United ‘ sentiment in 2006 i had 3rd again in Podolski and 2002 i don’t remember , 1998 will always stay with me , as 442 magazine , tipped David Suker as he came home at 33-1 !!
There are many pitfalls in the golden boot market as any on a tie at the end of the tournament will see the dead heat rules applying though FIFA go to the assist rule to find the winner , us punters are not rewarded.
A lot of folk speak about the double and pulling that off would be an unbelievable achievement , there is a little value in that as a fun bet and something to keep hold of throughout even round , you hope.
What about England and Rashford at 500-1 . Dreamland !!
Will England win it !?
Why not , they are winners right now through the age groups and this crop of players have good experience within , despite the age of the squad. The 3rd youngest squad in the 32 , gives them maybe something at the end of the tournament . There are many plus points going in.
England won’t win it !
Previous records and trends say they have no chance. No wonder Currys are giving away TVs and Paddy Power 250-1 if they are to win it, our record is awful and no knockout wins for years along with a dreadful record with goalscorer’s as our maximum is 2 for any player since 1998.
Fun bets …..
Perming anything together , from the groups can give you a really big price , look at this one I’ve put together from the advice listened to , read and indulged. It’s a big ask and great old mix up , though gives me an interest in every group. Go on have a go.
Uruguay to win Group A 8/11
Group B Morocco to Qualify 3/1
Group C Denmark to Qualify 4/6
Croatia to win Group D 9/4
Group E Costa Rica to Qualify 7/2
Group F Mexico to Qualify Evens
Panama to finish bottom of Group G 8/11
Group H Columbia to Qualify 4/11
The Man in the Know
Here we are again. After an excellent season which finished on a high with my final blog giving you 3 winners from 3 we try to fish out the best picks for the upcoming world cup.
I’ll start with a painful sentence. For those who don’t know I was born in Brazil so my support begins there, however I do not think they stand a chance to win it this time around. I am encouraged by the improvement in performance and with the new ability to keep goals out, but as a team I do not think they have enough quality. To put it simply they are not good enough. A balanced team that does not rely on one individual sounds good, but within that team old men are appearing. I see 2014 all over again, scramble through rounds and then going out to a heavy defeat.
So who do I fancy? My predicted winners are Spain. They sailed through qualifying scoring 36 goals and conceding just 3. They dominate games with their possession based football and are strong from back to front. A slight concern is that they do not always turn this possession into goals and the continued lack of a first choice centre forward. However they have vast experience and undoubted quality and think they will be there at the end.
I almost opted for a team with an abundance of young talent in France, however could this inexperience may be their downfall? Other than the full back positions France boast a team other nations can only dream of. They have proven star quality to choose from. The biggest weakness for France could be arrogance. If they start believing their own hype and with big fish like Pogba pulling the strings they could rule the world for years or blow up spectacularly.
Finally I have to mention the Germans. They are in awful form but any team that can leave players like Leroy Sane out of their side are worth a look. Germany are another team who boast great depth in their squad and have a strong group of players. They boast the best data system in the world and have a manager who’s tactics are meticulous. They are organised and a well oiled machine and if they perform they will be there or there about’s at the business end.
Solid bets: France/Germany
We will be back for a daily blog and short briefing, into what is happening and a look at the angles on the games.
A weekly alternative to the weekends fixtures offering advice, tips , selections and looking at possible trends in certain markets .
We highlight the key stats needed ahead of a packed Saturday and Sunday, when team news can often change your mind.
Stick to your picks and remember its 11 v 11 come kick off time, the papers and media can change your mind resulting in your head being in a pickle.
Chris Kirkham is your host, as a blog during 2016 took on Talksport acclaim, he went on to write for the Irish Big Race Trends last season too, having a great run of acca success in the Over 2.5 market , as well as ante post picks Arsenal winning the FA cup and Juventus featuring in the Champs League final.
A local award winning FA coach, his grassroots club recently won the FA charter standard club of the year and kindly asks any profits made from his selections, a kind donation is put back into kids grassroots football, at his club.
So this is it , it’s our season goodbye . No more Soccer Saturdays and super six . Saturdays will never be the same ( till next week and the FA cup final and the odd WC Saturday ) and we will wait till August to go again on the Premier league double .
The man in the know
Season at the business end and most things are decided. The main things to play for now are of course the Champions league, FA Cup and for me the football league play offs. Once that concludes we have the World Cup. I personally cannot wait. I have already pleaded with Chris not to hang the flags from the windows. I know he’ll take not one bit of notice. Can you remember the car flags? They’ll re appear. I got some Brazil ones for the world cup that Seaman was lobbed by Ronaldinho and Brazil knocked England out. My car got pelted driving past Seabirds. Ill keep my flags well away this time round. It wont matter, Brazil wont win it. Stay tuned for my World Cup blog were I’ll tell you who will (hopefully).This week Im going for Palace to beat WBA. The baggies almost pulled off a minor miracle and I hope Darren Moore gets the job. Regardless the Baggies are down and I think WBA will rotate so he can plan for next season. Palace wont and they’ll want to go out on a high. Woy has done a great job and comparing the home record for palace versus WBA’s away record 4/5 about Palace looks great value. Palace win.Chris wanted me to give you a pick for the football league play off’s. This seasons look tougher than ever with all teams in all divisions looking very evenly matched. I hope Villa don’t go up under Bruce’s negative style, they’ll be bad for the Premier league in terms of entertainment. Personally I dont’ think they will. My pick over all divisions has to be Fulham. Up until the last day were they blew it at Birmingham they had been on a 23 game unbeaten run. I have watched them a few times this season and from Xmas onwards they have been electric. They have class from back to front. If they don’t go up it will be a disaster as the team will be ripped apart by the big boys swooping on their talent. That is why Tom Cairney came out this week saying “its now or never” for the cottagers.Exeter are a lay in league 2. They cannot ever seem to get over the line for automatic promotion and have missed out in the play offs before. They will be the hard luck story.Premier League double
Huddersfield and Palace is 9-1
Season 2017-18 Preview
My room is the usual current array of all the new season guides filled with options and selections . I can happily keep them all to end of the season , and look back and look with laughter or hindsight or even anger of the selections made by pundits upend down the country.
I’m going to put up my ante post bets , and after a long look at things , my main bet is to be a former Premiership winning side now in League 1 and put up Blackburn to win the league
Blackburn to win League 1 9-2
Tony Mowbray has made some shrewd signings and at home you would expect most points to be won. Mowbray led a revival at the back end of last season losing 3 of 15 games since he took over.
The Champions League is something that can be won by half a dozen teams in which one has just broken all the records, and I feel PSG are only trying to build to win one title.
The Champs league semi beckoned for them last time out though the turnaround at Barca prevented them and now this season feel they will go one closer.
PSG to win Champions League 12-1
The premier league title can be won by Arsenal this term. Please don’t pass out or stop reading, hear me out.
So close but yet so far away in recent seasons, Wenger will play kids in the Europa League get knocked out then play City-Liverpool-United-Chelsea will all be in the Champs league come February and the gunners can concentrate on one competition. The FA cup he’s won too many times and at 11-1 feel Arsenal could well be top of the pile come next May.
ARSENAL to win the Premier League 11-1
The player of the year went to a midfielder last season and this season i feel this young man will shine. Paul Pogba will play when fit, thats a sure bet of the season.
Now with Matic able to give him more of the Juve role on the left, Pogba will turn 9 hits of the posts to goals and United to the next level.
Some great displays all be it in friendlies at club and international level, Pogba represents value in this market in which Other players unsettled or victims of squad rotation.
Hazard , Sanchez , Augero can’t be backed in faith.
Paul Pogba to be crowned play of the season at 12-1
A lucky 15 on the above four for a good solid season bet
“Stats matter buts it’s how we use them that affects our success”
Kevin Pullen – Racing Post Annual 2017-18
It’s with stats , this page had its success last season.
With no form to go on, we begin with head to heads in the Over 2.5 market
The rule here is simple
1-Games against each other over the last 6 seasons must be over 70%
2- They then must feature in the league’s top 10 of Over 2.5 goals teams
3-Look at the last 6 games from last season
Crawley v Port Vale
Bromley v Eastleigh
Woking v Gateshead
Albion v Ayr
11-1 with William Hill
I’ve also been given an acca from a man in the know of the lower leagues.
His studying is detailed and each week he will give us a nap of the weekend along with a treble
The mystery man from Flamborough spends many hours watching the non-league circuit and loves to delve into the bottom tiers of the English leagues.
Nap – Stevenage (Evens)
Add Chesterfield and Bradford
5-1 with Paddy Power
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