Thinking Outside The Box

SCOTTISH GOLD

This week I’ve delved into Scotland see below. The stats took 3 hours of a Monday night , if they come up trumps on Saturday I’ll give them another go next week.

So its champions league again next week so beware the favourites. I did a nice 6 fold on Sunday using all the favourites, this weekend beware.

I like the look of Stoke Draw no bet 3-1 at home to Chelsea. I’ve been quoted as saying i don’t feel many teams will get points from Mark Hughes side at home.

 

The Premier League Double 

It’s in Manchester and its Man City -2 and Man United -1

It’s 5-1, it’s a belting price -2 the pair is 11-1

Now winning 6-0 and 4-0 last week these two, both -3 is 48-1 , I’ve seen worse bets . This section is £105 up to £10 stake so far this season.

 

Lets go 5 points on the main double, 3 on the -2 double and 2 on the 48-1 shot.

 

This week I saw the worst coaching session ever, by a championship set up, who should be ashamed of the dross they are delivering. 14 a side, is something , I remember last seeing in my local park in the early 80s. I wonder what they are instructed and after seeing things like that make my mind wander about changing the face of football forever .

The FA are in crisis after the sacking of the England women’s manager , was he in the wrong, or are they just in the wrong for handing out coaching certificates , as if they fell out of a cornflakes packet.

 

The Over 2.5 four fold 

Brechin – Alloa – Stranraer – Stirling is 7-1

Get on, I’ve researched the Scottish league further, see below, or skip to the man in the know

 

When I first began this blog, I spoke about not being bothered about a game at Stenhousemuir and Arbroath as I looked for an angle each week to concentrate on. As the season wore on, things didn’t go to plan and that’s when over 2.5 picks began to gain momentum.

As a keen follower of trends and stats, its in Scotland where last week I mentioned to try and do combinations.

in total there were 20 games of which 16 were over 2.5. I was lucky enough to pick 8 and also 10 Over 1.5 too. Feeling guilty having not put them up, and being let down by one, yes one goal again at the hands of Hull and Sunderland, I’ve found myself beginning the blog on a Monday, to be true to the readers and find the value in Scotland.

My other reason to look at these games , is that ideally we all sit down for the 3pm kick offs , and Jeff Stelling. So the odd Premiership game can be live but we can guarantee at least 17 of the games in the leagues will be there for Jeff to update us.

There are goals and money to be made. The Saturday before only saw 9 of the games Over 2.5 the lowest for some time, however its still half the fixture list.

Ive mentioned covering leagues before , though that is a little slack handed as I’m sure you would rather have specifics.

So get ready for Statto to really full out the punches this week.

 

The A list , is shoe in , ticks all the boxes , The B list is ticking lists on form , and the C list is for trends and history.

Brechin v Dunfermline is bottom v top

4 goals scored v 18 goals scored , with Brechin shipping 14 already

History of the game shows 58 games of which 42 have been Over 2.5 , on the A list for sure

A Brechin spanking here , one for the list

Dumbarton v Inverness sees a lower half of the table scrap with Inverness being involved in 23 goals already so from 6 games almost 4 a game .

31 ties have seen 11 games Over 2.5 . So not a good trend one , though Inverness , are well in the goals , B list

Dundee Utd V Morton , United are tight here , only 5 netted and 5 conceded

79 times over 2.5 in 113 meetings . This is one for the trends , I’m not so certain and it makes the C list

Falkirk v Livingston 36 goals in their 12 games , so average 3 per game exact.

They are 16 from 33 on the trends so go on the B list

Alloa v Albion . Albion 27 goals in 6 games way over 2.5 per game.

101 games over from 168 games , gets them on the A list

East Fife v Forfar have only netted 9 between them in 12 games . Forfar have let in 16

112 over 2.5s from 159 games is solid enough , however just the C list for this game

Queens Park v Ayr . Ayr are 28 goals in 6 games so far , big on the form , over 4 goals involved every game

78 Overs in 117 , makes the A list

Raith v Airdrie . Raith smashed 5 in last week and 37 goals in 12 games between them already

11 from 30 games leaves this game on the B list

Stranraer v Arbroath 45 goals in 12 games . wow

69 in 112 so lets get this game on the A list

Clyde v Cowdenbeath . Cowdenbeath are bottom with odd stats , scored 2 conceded 8. Clyde have 22 goals in 6 games , 11 in the net , 11 shipped

39 from 60 including an 11-1 in 1951-52 , that poor keeper that day .

A confusing one that makes the A list , just but not with real confidence , may dig deeper later

Edinburgh v Peterhead . Peterhead score 13 in total , Edinburgh concede , 11 in total.

This their first meeting , both scored 3 and 4 last week they make the B list

Elgin v Montrose . Montrose look boring , 8 scored , 6 let in. Elgin 9 scored then 10 let in . 25 in 12 games , is under 2.5

37 from 72 , is around half . No list for this game

Stenhousemuir v Berwick . Berwick concede 15

88 from 155 games . A list

Stirling v Annan 42 goals in 12 games , thats well over 3 per game

12 from 18 contests , an A lister

The Scottish Premier League sees just 3 games at 3pm

Kilmarnock v Dundee both poor in front of goal , and only 5 in the last 15 games , so stay clear

Ross C v Hibs . Ross conceded 15 so joint with Q Park. just 5 from 13 games over 2.5 , leave

St John’s v Hamilton 39 goals in 12 games , a good omen , 8 in 24 not so great , a scraper for the B list

A list 

 

Brechin , Queens Park , Alloa , Stranraer , Stirling , Queens Park , Stenhousemuir with Clyde just 

 

B list 

 

Dumbarton , Falkirk , Raith , Edinburgh , then St Johns 

 

C list 

 

Dundee United and East Fife 

 

St Mirren play Queen of the South and recent form has them 100% and then 5 from 6 respectively

Its played Sunday though

 

Dunfermline , Forfar , Albion , Raith , Dundee , Striling , Peterhead , Stranrear , Clyde are all 5/6

That makes that A list strong , as Dunfermline go to Brechin , Albion go to Alloa , Stranraer feature , as do Stirling , and Clyde

 

So using 20 points , we will do this . 

The 4 timer and to go on the blog is 

Brechin – Alloa – Stranraer – Stirling 6 points 

The A list – 4 points 

The A and B list – 2 points 

The B and C list – 2 points 

The A and C list – 2 points 

A B and C – 2 points 

and again A B C over 1.5 – 2 points

 

‘The Man in the Know’

 

We continue this week with the hope we can land something a little tasty. Every league seems fairly wide open and its making for an exciting start to the season. I told you last week to go as big as you could on Middlesborough and they got the job done, just. A narrow win doesn’t result in a reduction in winnings, we get paid out no matter how the manner of victory is achieved. Therefore I hope some of you managed to collect. I told you there would be goals in the Dagenham/Halifax game and there were 4. Good going for the goals markets, something I’m going to try and stay away from.

 

One area which we need to improve on is the treble. We’ve had a couple of close calls and I think this week could be the one:

 

First up were going to go for a team I mentioned last week in Dagenham and Redbridge. They’ve won 4 of their last 6 games scoring 13 goals along the way. They are playing Solihull Moors who in the same period have only won 1 game and scored a measly 3 goals. Dagenham are a real force at this level and are one of the fav’s to bounce back into the football league. Solihull on the other hand have failed to score in 5 of their 8 games. A Daggers win has to the the way to go and cant believe we are getting 8/11. You could improve that price further by having the Daggers to win to nil. Im going to have a little stake on that this week. I like the look of 2-0 at 17/2 and 3-0 at 13/1. I like to offer an angle for the opponents of the selection however Im struggling to find one here. Solihull are a really poor team and it would be a major shock if they got anything here.

 

Next up is going to be QPR to beat Burton. As I write this I’m watching Burton at Man Utd. The gulf in class is vast and although a Man Utd win is expected here, the lack of ambition and effort from the Brewers is quite remarkable. They have a look of a team who have given up already. I saw them against my team earlier in the season and they were dire in that game too. Burton have already shipped 14 goals this season and look very vulnerable at the back, especially away from home. At home Burton are a different proposition. They play in a small ground, a tight pitch and its often an away day the pre madonnas struggle to motivate themselves for. Results back this up. Luckily for us, Saturday is an away day for the Brewers. They don’t travel well and expect QPR to add to the misery. The Hoops are a team I always fancy to get beat, yet they always grind out a result. They’ve had a bit of an up and down season but have beaten some good sides. They’ve lost to the teams in the high reaches of the table but given them a good game. I think they have too much for Albion. One interesting point to note is that QPR have only failed to score in 1 league game this season, however they have conceded in all………..Ill leave that one for Chris. 2-1 QPR looks a good shout.

 

Finally its a team i am going to give another chance, Accrington. They come up against Cheltenham. To put it simply Cheltenham have won 1 game all season and that was last week. They’ve only picked up 1 point away from home all season and have yet to score an away goal. Is that enough? They are another team who are a different force at home. Their home record isn’t particularly good but they have given some high flying teams a good game. This includes top of the table Exeter who needed to be at their best to win a topsy turvy game 4-3. I can never understand why a team can do it at home but not away. One example is Hull City another is Cheltenham. Home win.

 

Advice:

 

Dagenham and Redbridge to beat Solihull Moors

QPR to beat Burton Albion

Accrington Stanley To beat Cheltenham Town

 

13/2 with Betway.

 

For those who like a big single bets 10/11 is an absolute steal for Barnet to beat Crawley. (Go careful)