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How to Slice Through the ‘Favourite-Backing’ Media Hype, and Hone In

On Value Bets Every Single Time, with the Cold, Calculated Eye of a Black

Belt Brain Surgeon…

In the last 15 years, I discovered the power of race trends and since then have been a much more successful bettor.

Here, I will show you how I do it, and how you can join me.

Tony McCormick





TANGLED 8/1 (Adv)






While the ‘experts’ were telling you to follow, Jack Hobbs or Highland Reel.

The Trends told our members to go with Enable, Ulysses and Idaho

For a 67/1 tricast!


Spirit Of Valor 3/1 (adv)

Mutakayyef(4/7f)/Kapersky(20/1 adv)

Ballet Concerto 9/1 (adv)

Home Of The Brave 13/8f


Ulysses 8/1


My name is Tony McCormick. Over 10 years ago, I was an average punter, trying to find winners every day, either in poor low grade races in the betting shop or at my local track.

I had good days and bad days, like every other punter I guess, but if I’m honest, the bad ones outweighed the good ones by about three to one.

My problem was I didn’t really have an angle.

I’d look at each race on its merits and try to divine the form, like some modern-day rune reader.

Don’t get me wrong, I really enjoyed my betting days. But I was frustrated that overall I was a loser, and I had to admit to my mates (and my missus!) that this was the case.

My Eyes Were Opened…

Then one day… I remember it clearly, it was Monday, 12th March 2007, the eve of the Cheltenham National Hunt Festival… my punting approach changed permanently.

A mate of mine, Tom, who I used to go racing with, was flicking through his latest manual. (Tom used to buy one or two of these things a month.

I’d make a joke about it, but he was always much luckier than me. At least, I thought it was luck…)

Anyway, as I said, he was leafing through this manual and I asked him what it was.

He looked up, paused for a second, and then handed it over to me. It was a copy of a betting guide for the Cheltenham Festival, and in those pages was a heady mixture of analysis, trainer comments and, most interestingly to me, a run-down of the big race trends for the last ten years.

I’d briefly come across these big race trends on the odd occasion, but had never really taken much notice of them… until that Monday and that year’s Festival.

Well, to cut a long story short, I backed several winners that I’d not have previously given a second thought to. And at nice prices. In fact, Joe’s Edge – admittedly the jewel in the crown – came in at 50/1!

I made a killing, and so did Tom.

Months later, I followed Tom’s trends for the Royal Ascot meeting, and they did pretty well too.

Not as brilliantly as that first great Cheltenham, of course, but more than paid their way, and they gave me a confidence in my betting that wasn’t there before.

Later that summer, I started compiling my own trends:

trends I was happy with;

trends I thought were more important than those printed in other publications;

trends that pointed to horses with the criteria of past winners,

and trends that pointed to the winner of this year’s races.

I still wasn’t happy… Over the next two years, up until the start of 2010, I’d been ‘twiddling a few knobs’ to refine things, but I still wasn’t entirely happy with the trends… even though the winners kept coming.

It wasn’t until the turn of the year, when a guy called Matt Bisogno and I started exchanging emails and phone calls, that the trends evolved into something that I’m now confident are ‘the real deal’.

[In case you don’t know, Matt has been writing about racing and producing trends-based products since 2006. He’s a straight guy with a strong following online – just ‘Google’ him!]

With Matt’s help, advice and expertise, I honed the trends in to a tight, workable, professional looking, and easy to understand product.

Eight year trends were introduced, as well as primary and secondary trends.

Let me quickly explain. During my research I’d often find that when all the trends were applied, I’d be left with a tenuous selection because of a single trend that I wasn’t sure was as meaningful as others for that race (an example might be a breeding trend, for instance).

So I broke the trends down into two sets, primary and secondary, and produced a shortlist after the primary analysis.

I then process the shortlisted horses through my own creation –  FACTOR5…

Factor5 is a helpful tool to highlight important criteria applied to the shortlisted horses for the race being covered.

Win and places are covered in the table, helping you to make your decision on the shortlist.

Surface – Takes in all form on today’s surface, which in turn will take in performances on the track. Surfaces researched are Flat, Slight undulations, Undulating and Very undulating.

Going – The performances of the shortlisted horses on the predicted ground.

Distance – How the shortlisted horses have performed at today’s race distance.

Direction – Highlighting the performances of horses running either left or right handed or on a straight track.

Class – Data from how the highlighted runners have performed in today’s class of race.

Although generally there would be more than one horse on the shortlist, those lists and FACTOR5 found the winner with gratifying regularity.

Allied to this, the brilliant R.A.G system is a really handy ‘traffic light’ system, which helps us see at a glance the historical strength of a race in trends terms.


That’s all very interesting Tony, but what about the results?!

Listen, there are loser’s, of course there is, but the trends get winners and not those at ‘SKINNY’ prices…



While the ‘experts’ were telling you to follow, Jack Hobbs or Highland Reel.

The Trends told our members to go with Enable, Ulysses and Idaho

For a 67/1 tricast!



Spirit Of Valor 3/1 (adv)

Mutakayyef(4/7f)/Kapersky(20/1 adv)

Ballet Concerto 9/1 (adv)

Home Of The Brave 13/8f


Ulysses 8/1




RA Results

From Five races covered at York


Magical Memory 5/2f

So Mi Dar 4/5f

Beautiful Romance 5/1

Wings Of Desire 9/1

From eight races covered at Aintree


Kayf Grace 14/1

Ballyoptic 10/1

Arzal 13/2

Apple’s Jade 4/1

Buveur D’air 11/4

And ROGUE ANGEL wins the Irish National

As I say, Bonny Kate, tick a lot of boxes here and deserves her place at the head of the market, but I like to have a bit of fun with the Irish National and will be playing…

Rogue Angel, Kerry National winner back in September with Ger Fox back on board.

33/1 Advised

Each Way Selection:  Rogue Angel@33/1    Folsom Blue@33/1 (Finished 4th)






Placed runners

HIDDEN GOLD 3RD 14/1, RAUCOUS 17/2, RIBCHESTER 25/1 (40/1 advised), TOE THE LINE 25/1 (33/1 Advised)

Sunday 9th August

I could well be wrong, but, for me, Buratino has had a long season and in my experience I haven’t seen many two-year-olds carry their form throughout a season. The colt has solid and possibly the best form in the race, but the trends confirm my fear that this could be one race too far.


Dutch Selection:                 Anthem Alexander/Mattmu      

Each Way Selection:          Toscanini@7/1 



‘With two dedicated Racing Channels, and so much racing these days, it really is more than a one man job keeping on top of the form, especially at this time of the year. I’ve tried many different tools to try and give me an edge; IBRT is simple, on the ball, but most of all very accurate’

Niall Hannity, Racing UK



Covert Love 7/1 (15/2 advised)

Home Of The Brave 7/2 (5/1 advised)


1 – Amazing Maria@9/1

2 – Euro Charline@14/1


Dutch Connection 14/1 and Snow Sky 12/1

at Royal Ascot

‘IBRT is well worth checking out. Tony analyses the recent trends of the race and comes up with some excellent selections such as Dutch Connection (14/1) and Snow Sky (12/1) at the Royal Meeting. The trends, sent out on the morning of the race are easy to follow and results are very encouraging, I’m a huge fan’ – Tony Ennis, At The Races


Katie Walsh on 


Thunder And Roses at 25/1 (Advised)

Irish Big Race Trends EXCLUSIVE winner finding tool FACTOR5 told our members

Thunder And Roses had a win and a place at the track, two wins and two places on the ground and a 50% win and place strike rate running right handed.

Our notes said

Unseated amateur in the Toby Balding National Hunt Chase at the festival, following a third place in the Grade Two Ten Up Novice Chase at Navan.
Sure to go better for Katie Walsh.
Stallion Presenting has produced Niche Market to win in 2009, Home Farm 3rd in 2013 and Whatuthink 3rd in 2010



That’s all very interesting Tony, but what about the results?!


A perfectly fair question, so let’s take a look at the results for the Royal Ascot 2013

Royal Ascot Day 1

WINNER! Declaration Of War 7/1….

WINNER! Sole Power 8/1…

WINNER! Dawn Approach 5/4…

Each Way! Gregorian 16/1…

Each Way! Mubaraza 10/1

Each Way! Sir John Hawkins 6/1…

Sole Power/Shea Shea Ex £36.70

Dawn Approach/Toronado Ex £8.70

Day 2…

WINNER! Gale Force Ten @9/2f

WINNER! Duntle @100/30

WINNER! Al Kazeem @11/4

WINNER! Rizeena @6/1

The Fugue (Advised weeks before EW @10/1)

Woodland Aria EW @7/1

Day 3…

WINNER !No Nay Never @4/1

WINNER! No Nay Never/Coach House CSF £13:01

Top Trip EW @7/1

Queensbury Rules EW @16/1

Day 4…

WINNER! Sky Lantern @9/2

WINNER! Lightening Cloud @5/4f

Sheikhzayedroad EW @8/1

Bana Wu EW @16/1

Day 5…


Four Shortlisted horses…..

Lethal Force WON @11/1

Society Rock 2nd @4/1f

Krypton Factor 3rd @25/1

Soul 17/18

If you had placed a £1 combination Tricast (£24) on the four shortlisted horses in the Diamond Jubilee

The Trifecta paid


WINNER! Opinion @8/1

WINNER Chiberta King @8/1

Dinkum Diamond EW @22/1

Khubala EW @16/1


CHELTENHAM FESTIVALS [All of these races were published to or available by subscription…

2013 Cheltenham Festival

Supreme NovicesChampagne Fever won last year’s ‘Bumper’, Ruby deciding to ride a horse he is yet to win on (2 defeats) suggest the Stowaway gelding is coming to hand – as he did this time last year. The ArkleSimonsig Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly has to overcome the age trend, but, the former champion is still the one to beat. The Neptune The New One has valuable Cheltenham experience behind him having won here on two occasions and finishing placed from four runs. The worry is parting with your money with a cloud hanging over the Twiston-Davies stable, though their runners ran well here yesterday. Rule The World continues to improve already having Minsk and Supreme Novices winner Champagne Fever behind him last time out, needs to improve to beat the favourite, but that is on the cards. Queen Mother Champion Chase Sprinter Sacre looks in a class of his own, so it’s who can finish second to him. The Bumper – The Mullins’ pair Briar Hill and Sizing Tennesee score particularly well on the trends, despite running in small fields which may be a negative. The Ryanair – Cue Card is very strong on the trends and showed his well being last time out at Ascot in February. The Kings Theatre gelding has finished in the first four at the last three festival and is 33% around here. If Tizzard gets him into some kind of rhythm, he will take all the beating. Triumph HurdleOur Conors’ win last time out at Leopardstown was a stunning performance, travels well in his races and worthy favourite, despite only one winning favourite in the last eight runnings. Albert Bartlett – Unbeaten in his last four start At Fishers Cross outstayed Neptune winner up the hill here in January, that followed a win over todays distance, again, here in December – The one to beat. Gold Cup Bobs Worth  

2012 The Trends highlighted

9 winners from the 11 Grade 1 races covered at the Cheltenham Festival Cinders And Ashes 10/1, Sprinter Sacre 8/15, Simonsig 2/1, Bob’s Worth 9/2, Finian’s Rainbow 4/1, Champagne Fever 16/1, Big Bucks 5/6, Brindisi Breeze 7/1 and Synchronised 8/1 Supreme Novices’ – Cinders And Ashes only blip on the trends horizon is that his last run will be over 37 days ago come Tuesday’s race, but for sheer racing trends the Donald McCain inmate scores well. The Arkle – Sprinter Sacre Neptune Investments – Simonsig is the best of the British contingent RSA Chase – Bobs Worth is clear on the trends here Queen Mother Champion Chase – Finians Rainbow The Bumper – Preference here is for Moscow Mannon, who is closely followed by Champagne Fever World Hurdle – Big Bucks Albert Bartlett – Brindisi Breeze will make it interesting as he will try to make all. Gold Cup – Synchronised has improved 12lb this year and has place claims following his win in the Lexus.   

Lion Na Bearnai was shortlisted in the Irish Grand National – won at 40/1 

Chrysanthemum wins the Park Express for IBRT subscribers at 11/1 Profit gained at Aintree included wins for Grumeti, Edgardo Sol, Finians Rainbow, Darlan and Oscar Whisky – The last 19 races covered, 15 winners highlighted, 1 placed advice at 16/1.




”Captain Chris found the winners enclosure last time out and cannot be dismissed at 10/1.” 

Champion Hurdle – FORECAST 

HURRICANE FLY and runner up Peddlers Cross come home a full 6½l ahead of the rest of the field paying 14:69 for the forecast.


National Hunt Chase – 20/1 THIRD Be There In Five shortlisted on the trends rewards each way backers at 20/1 to finish a battling 3rd. 

Neptune Investments – The Davy Russell ridden FLIGHT LIEUTENANT and at 7/1 duly obliged for Mid- Price backers. 

R.S.A. Chase –  16/1 WINNER 

Another Irish winner as BOSTONS ANGEL takes the RSA at 16/1


Queen Mother – 10/1 WINNER 

Followers of Irish Big Race Trends wouldn’t have been surprised to see SIZING EUROPE in the mix for the big race on Wednesday and he repaid Mid Price selection followers at 10/1.

IBRT’s Tony McCormick said ‘’What was possibly one of the hardest races at the festival was pretty straight forward on the trends. I love a hyped race, this was no exception. Nobody, because of the The Morning Line and the daily paper pull-out hype, looked past Master Minded and Big Zeb, for me SIZING EUROPE was right in the mix and so it proved”. 

Coral Cup – 16/1 WINNER 

Wonderful Wednesday continued with ease as CARLITO BRIGANTE cruised to victory under Davy Russell at 16/1. The Coral Cup is normally a minefield for punters, IBRT got it to a shortlist of 4, rewarding higher priced followers. 

Fred Winter – 33/1 PLACE  

For the trends KUMBESHWAR was beaten a neck at 33/1.



World Hurdle – TRI-CAST 

A tri cast was shortlisted on the trends as BIG BUCKS, GRAND CRUS And MOURAD came home first second and third paying 15:64. 

More disappointment came in the Byrne Group Plate and The Fulke Walwyn with trend busters in both races.



The Triumph Hurdle 

the trends said All shortlisted horses are pretty close together here, interestingly Zarkandar only fail’s on the number of runs. 

Zarkander wins the Triumph Hurdle at 13/2 with Grandouet (also shortlisted) 3rd at 13/2 

The Albert Bartlett saw Trends selection and big gamble Bobs Worth smash the bookies at 15/8 (opened at 5/2) and Court In Motion also shortlisted came 3rd at 9/1. 

And so to the Gold Cup 

The Trends Shortlisted What A Friend, Kauto Star and Long Run 

May & June Highlights 2011 

Ballybacka Lady 40/1, Princeton Plains 12/1, Hitchens 4/1, Roderic O’Connor 7/2, Alexander Pope 3/1, Misty For Me 9/1 Bewitched 5/1,